My theory is that in 2 years there will be so many applications in the iPhone app store that it will be impossible to achieve success. That only the early developers will find any measure of success.
I say this because it seems to be the way the Apple software ecosystem works. There are a few applications, written by developers who have been working on the Apple platform for a great number of years, that are constantly recommended and very successful.
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I think that’s already happened and been happening for awhile – it’s a somewhat “myth” that you can get rich quick from iPhone apps, and only a handful (at least compared to the total number of apps) seem to be profitable.
There was an article on this by UK newspaper The Guardian about 6 months ago (http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/may/28/iphone-apps).
i’d say we’re already pretty close to being there. it’s already hard enough to find stuff that unless you have a niche, you’ll probably never be seen.
Bad link.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/may/28/iphone-apps
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